I made it!
My day certainly did not go as originally planned. In fact, my route was nearly completely nonoverlapping with my planned route, which was to go over the abandoned Refugio Road, then all the way over West Camino Cielo and East Camino Cielo, then down Gibraltar Road. I was having second thoughts, though, given the insane amount of elevation gain.
As I left Solvang, the day looked to be outstandingly sunny. I couldn't understand the 40% chance of precipitation in the forecast. I turned onto Refugio and immediately encountered a "road closed, bridge out" sign. Having been trained that such signs don't typically apply to cyclists, I went to investigate, accompanied by many construction trucks. What it really meant was that they were actively rebuilding a bridge, and no, you really can't walk around the earth excavator.
Great, so I would need to go up CA-154 to Stagecoach Road. On the way out of Refugio, the road was so bumpy that my bagman bent such that it stopped my bag onto the rear wheel. I had to pull out my ingenuity and steal the strap from my handlebar bag, sling my rear bag over my shoulder, and limp over to a hardware store in Santa Ynez to get an Allen wrench of the right size. It turned out that bending it back was the right solution, though. Now I did notice the clouds over the mountains getting darker and darker. I also realized I had lost a water bottle somewhere, but I was carrying enough extra liquids that I want worried.
There was an exciting episode on 154 at a long stretch of single-lane road closure. The traffic in the other direction wasn't held for me while I slogged uphill, so I had to jump off the side of the road to wait for them to pass.
Then the rain began, at noon, and it was a test in many ways. I was able to find a large oak tree to stay dry under and wait. I ate some of the food I'd accumulated in the past day. And I continued to wait. I watched the drizzle go on for about an hour, and I watched a patch of blue sky creep into view over the ridge. Finally, running out of patience, I decided to start riding again, but I didn't get far before deciding it would be better to bail out.
I stuck my arm out, hoping to flag down a truck driver with some room to spare. Out of maybe 150 cars that went by, one stopped. Unfortunately his truck was full, but he did report that the weather was better on the Santa Barbara side, and the rain was really just in this 5-mile stretch. After about 15 minutes, I gave up my faith in humanity. I decided to test my insolence; I might as well stay warm by keeping moving.
It was just 3 miles to Stagecoach Road. This section was also marked "closed", but for no discernible reason. It came to another junction with 154, beyond which it was open. The rain had by now really let up, but I still had on most of my layers to stay warm. It was a steady climb up to a self-proclaimed historic civil engineering landmark, the Cold Springs Arch Bridge, and then the Cold Springs Tavern. Lunch was well-deserved: chili, burger, cheesecake.
A bit more climbing brought me to San Marcos Pass. There was some scary descending with fast traffic on 154 to Old San Marcos Road. I've never seen a road anywhere with such an amazing view. I saw a channel island in the distance, the shining Pacific and the sun breaking over the coastal cities, and the gloomy cover of clouds over the dark Santa Ynez Mountains. It was a straightforward and steep descent.
It was so warm down below, I had to repack my bag to put my extra layers in. I tried to follow the remarkably well-signed bike routes for a while, but soon I found my way over to the easiest one to navigate, State Street. I arrived at my hosts' at 4:30.